02/12/2024 (written by cahtoong) – As election season approaches in Mexico, analysts fear that the 2024 election will be the most violent in the country’s history. According to Mike Ballard, the Director of Intelligence for Global Guardian, he fears that if the cartels are not able to bribe politicians, they will instead “coerce them with violence”(KTSM). The last five years have shown an upward trend of political violence, especially worrisome leading up to 2024 where there are 20,000 positions up for election, and 19,000 are local positions (El Economista).
Where is the Violence Occurring?
According to El Economista, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Puebla, Guerrero, and Michoacán are considered the most dangerous states for political participation. Veracruz was identified as the most politically dangerous state, accounting for 15.9% of political violence based on the available data. In 2023 alone, Guerrero witnessed the assassination of 13 political figures, whereas Oaxaca and Veracruz saw 9 and 5, respectively. Recently, Ricardo Taja Ramírez was assassinated on December 21, 2023, in Acapulco, Guerrero. Ramírez was a candidate for the federal chamber of deputies with Morena, making his death a poignant example of the risks associated with political engagement in these regions.
Violence Against Political Actors
Based on the research collected by El Economista from Votar entre Balas, a project and database that has documented a notable 1,563 political attacks between 2018 and 2023.These attacks encompass 1,058 kidnappings, 125 threats, 276 armed attacks, 73 general attacks, and 32 disappearances. Notably, this data exposes a disturbing 198% increase in violence against politicians during this period. Between September 7, 2023, and November 28, 2023, the situation witnessed a further escalation, marked by 81 murders, six threats, 18 armed attacks, 13 general attacks, five disappearances, and eight kidnappings. According to Integralia, criminal groups exploit electoral processes to extend their influence over local governments, leading to short-term issues of violence. In the long term, this strengthens criminal power, leaving communities vulnerable to extortion and theft.
Impact of Political Attacks During Campaigns
A study from Noria Research conducted between 2020 and 2021 has revealed concerning trends in political violence in Mexico. The findings indicate that a significant 84% of incidents occur before and during political campaigns. Furthermore, the data underscores that 58% of the victims are pre-candidates or individuals aspiring to secure popular positions. The authors of the study suggest that violence tends to be more pronounced in situations where incumbent candidates are weaker, especially those unlikely to secure seats due to shifts in party power.
Sources
These alarming statistics shed light on the escalating levels of political violence in Mexico, particularly during election periods. The study raises significant concerns about the safety of politicians, especially as the country approaches the 2024 elections.
Resendiz, Julian. “Internal fracturing, election year uncertainty will keep U.S. neighbor a ‘high risk’ country.” KTSM. February 7, 2024
Palacio, Raymundo Riva. “2024: el gran peligro para México.” El Financiero. January 22, 2024.
Asmann, Parker. “Mexico’s 2024 Election Could Spark Violent Criminal Realignments.” Insight Crime. January 15, 2024
Badillo, Diego. “Proceso electoral 2024 podría ser el más violento de la historia, advierten analistas.” El Economista. January 14, 2024.
García, Carina. “Elecciones 2024 se perfilan para ser las más violentas en la historia.” Expansión Política. January 10, 2024.
Villagómez, Enrique. “Asesinan a balazos a Ricardo Taja, aspirante a diputado federal por Morena.” El Financiero. December 21, 2023.
“Data on Political & Electoral Violence in Mexico, 2020-2021.” Noria Research. June 24th, 2021.
