“El Resurgimiento del Crimen Violento en Tijuana”: Análisis de Justice in Mexico

05/18/18 (by Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira and David A. Shirk) — Justice in Mexico has released a new Spanish translation of “The Resurgence of Violent Crime in Tijuana” by Jaime Arredondo, Zulia Orozco, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk.

The publication provides an assessment of the recent resurgence of violent crime in the Mexican border city of Tijuana in the state of Baja California. Drawing on the latest available information and statistics, the authors examine the varied trends in the major categories of violent crimes in Tijuana: homicide, assault, robbery, extortion, kidnapping, rape, and other sex crimes.

Below you will find a detailed summary of the report in Spanish. For a detailed summary in English, click here.

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Análisis: El Resurgimiento del Crimen Violento en Tijuana

El análisis del programa Justicia en México de la Universidad de San Diego, elaborado por de Jaime Arredondo Sánchez Lira, Zulia Orozco, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira y David A. Shirk, bajo el título “El Resurgimiento del Crimen Violento en Tijuana” proporciona una evaluación del reciente incremento de delitos con violencia en la ciudad fronteriza del estado de Baja California. Basándose en la información y las estadísticas disponibles más recientes  los autores examinan las distintas tendencias de las principales categorías de delitos violentos en Tijuana: homicidio, asalto, robo, extorsión, secuestro, violación y otros delitos sexuales.

Según la Secretaría de Seguridad Pública del Estado de Baja California, el número de homicidios en 2008 y 2009 alcanzaron los 1,094, que en ese momento representaban niveles récord de violencia para la ciudad. Sin embargo, a partir de 2015, la ciudad experimentó un aumento gradual en el número de homicidios en 2015 (612 casos con 674 víctimas), 2016 (872 casos con 919 víctimas) y 2017 (1,618 casos con 1,780 víctimas) que ahora han colocado a la ciudad en la cima del incremento nacional de homicidios, en donde Tijuana representa cerca del 6% de todas las víctimas de homicidio en México.

 

Los autores han encontrado que la distribución de la violencia en Tijuana es desigual, y refleja divisiones geográficas, económicas y sociales. Al examinar los datos de homicidios a nivel colonia, los autores encontraron que dicha violencia está altamente concentrada en áreas específicas, principalmente en tres grupos que corresponden a zonas específicas dentro de la ciudad: Tijuana Oriental (que comprende las delegaciones de La Presa, La Presa Este y Otay). la delegación de Sánchez Taboada y la delegación Centro. También encontraron que el 20% de todos los homicidios se concentraron en solo 10 de las aproximadamente 850 colonias de Tijuana. De ellos, las tres colonias más violentas representaron el 10% de todos los homicidios en el municipio: Camino Verde (75), Zona Norte (49), Zona Centro (32).

Mientras tanto, las tendencias delictivas se han mezclado para generar otras formas de crímenes violentos en Tijuana en los últimos años. Por ejemplo, los robos a mano armada en espacios públicos también han disminuido en general desde su punto más alto en 2008-10, cuando en promedio se contabilizaban más de 300 incidentes reportados por mes. De 2015 a 2017, la incidencia promedio mensual bajó a aproximadamente la mitad de esa cantidad, sin embargo, en los últimos años ha habido un fuerte aumento en el número de robos a mano armada en establecimientos comerciales de Tijuana llegando a los 300 incidentes reportados por mes, además de registrarse un aumento en el número de robos de automóviles de los 7,655 casos reportados en 2016 a 10,148 en 2017, es decir, unaumento del 32.6%.

 

 

En un esfuerzo por explicar estas tendencias, los autores ofrecen una visión general de la historia reciente del crimen organizado en Tijuana, con la consideración del papel que han desempeñado en las recientes olas de violencia. Los autores encontraron que ha habido un cambio importante en las dinámicas de la delincuencia organizada en Tijuana después de la detención y posterior extradición de Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, quien una vez comandara el cártel de Sinaloa. Desde la caída del capo, una nueva organización criminal, conocida como el “Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación” ha afianzado su presencia en Tijuana y ha enfrentado directamente a los restos del cártel de Sinaloa. En medio del conflicto entre estas poderosas organizaciones criminales—y el vacío de liderazgo en la ciudad—ha habido una falta de control sobre pandillas, traficantes y vendedores de drogas ilícitas, y grupos dedicados a otras actividades ilícitas, todo a nivel de cada esquina, calle y colonia.

Para abordar los problemas delictivos recientes de la ciudad, los autores ofrecen una discusión de las respuestas de seguridad pública y las opciones de políticas disponibles para abordar la crisis de seguridad actual en Tijuana, con algunas recomendaciones generales de política pública para abordar los desafíos recientes de la ciudad. Los autores presentan cinco conjuntos generales de recomendaciones:

Abordar la marginación social y económica:

  1. Invertir en programas de desarrollo social y económico
  2. Implementar estrategias de policía comunitaria en zonas altamente violentas
  3. Mejorar el transporte público y el acceso a las colonias
  4. Programas de desarrollo juvenil y social
  5. Recuperación y creación de espacios públicos

Combatir el crimen organizado:

  1. Reducir la dependencia en la estrategia de Kingpin
  2. Reforzar la capacidad local de las agencias de seguridad pública ante la dinámica cambiante del delito
  3. Disuasión concentrada de la violencia

Atención a Poblaciones Especiales:

  1. Centrarse en prevenir y detener la violencia doméstica
  2. Aumentar la sensibilidad a la atención de víctimas especiales por parte de la policía
  3. Ajustes estacionales en despliegue de la fuerza y en los ​​esfuerzos de atención a víctimas

Ser inteligentes en el tema de las drogas:

  1. Programas de rehabilitación para el uso drogas
  2. Programas de prevención de uso drogas
  3. Colaboración binacional en nuevas regulaciones de marihuana en California
  4. Desarrollar un enfoque de salud pública basado en la evidencia empírica

Mejorar el análisis del crimen y la violencia

  1. Reportar las coordenadas geoespaciales precisas de los crímenes
  2. Profesionalizar el monitoreo y análisis del delito
  3. Fortalecer los programas de estudios criminológicos
  4. Divulgación de pública de la información

 

Descargar “El Resurgimiento del Crimen Violento en Tijuana”

New Policy Brief: The Resurgence of Violent Crime in Tijuana

02/05/18 (written by David A. Shirk) — A new Justice in Mexico policy brief by Jaime Arredondo Sánchez Lira, Zulia Orozco, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk, entitled The Resurgence of Violent Crime in Tijuana, provides an assessment of the recent resurgence of violent crime in the Mexican border city of Tijuana in the state of Baja California. Drawing on the latest available information and statistics, the authors examine the varied trends in the major categories of violent crimes in Tijuana: homicide, assault, robbery, extortion, kidnapping, rape, and other sex crimes.

According to the Baja California State Secretariat for Public Security, the number of murders in 2008 and 2009 reached 1,094, which at the time constituted record levels of violence for the city. However, beginning in 2015, the city saw a gradual increase in the number of homicides in 2015 (612 with 674 victims), 2016 (872 cases with 919 victims), and 2017 (1,618 cases with 1,780 victims) that has now placed the city at the forefront of a national surge in homicides, with Tijuana accounting for close to 6% of all homicide victims in Mexico.

The authors find that the distribution of violence within Tijuana is uneven and reflects geographic, economic, and social divisions in the city. Examining neighborhood level homicide data, the authors found such violence to be highly concentrated in specific areas, primarily in three clusters that correspond to specific zones within the city: Eastern Tijuana (comprising the delegations of La Presa, La Presa Este, and Otay), the Sanchez Taboada delegation, and the Centro delegation. They also found that 20% of all homicides were concentrated in only 10 out of the roughly 850 neighborhoods in Tijuana. Of those, the three most violent neighborhoods accounted for 10% of all homicides in the municipality: Camino Verde (75), Zona Norte (49), Zona Centro (32).

Meanwhile, crime trends have been mixed for other forms of violent crime in Tijuana over the past few years. For example, armed robberies in public spaces have also generally declined since the peak in 2008-10, when was an average of over 300 reported incidents per month: in 2015-17, the average monthly incidence was down to roughly half that amount. However, there has been a sharp increase in the number of armed robberies in Tijuana’s commercial establishments in recent years, reaching as high as 300 incidents per month, and a surge of car thefts from the 7,655 cases reported in 2016 to 10,148 in 2017, an increase of 32.6%.

In an effort to explain these trends, the authors provide a general overview of the recent history of organized crime in Tijuana, with consideration of the role it has played in recent surges in violence. The authors find that there has been an important shift in organized crime in Tijuana, due to the arrest and extradition of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who once controlled the Sinaloa cartel. Since his fall, a new criminal organization, known as the “Jalisco New Generation Cartel” has asserted its presence in Tijuana and has directly clashed with the remnants of the Sinaloa cartel. Amid the conflict between these powerful criminal organizations—and the leadership vacuum among the city’s criminal “shot callers”—there has been a lack of control over local gangs and dealers engaged in illicit drug sales and other illicit activities at the neighborhood and street-corner level.

To address the city’s recent crime problems, the authors provide a discussion of the public security responses and policy options available to address Tijuana’s current security crisis, with some general policy recommendations for addressing the city’s recent challenges. The authors present five overarching sets of policy recommendations:

  • Addressing Social and Economic Marginalization:
    1. Invest in social and economic development programs in Tijuana.
    2. Implement community policing in highly violent areas
    3. Improve public transportation and neighborhood accessibility
    4. More youth outreach and social development programs
    5. Recovery and creation of public spaces
  • Combatting Organized Crime:
    1. Reduce dependence on the Kingpin Strategy
    2. Re-enforce local law enforcement capacity amid shifting crime dynamics
    3. Focused deterrence of violence
  • Attending to Special Populations:
    1. Focus on preventing and stopping domestic violence
    2. Increase sensitivity to special victims in local policing
    3. Seasonal adjustments in force deployment and victim response efforts
  • Getting Smart on Drugs:
    1. Drug rehabilitation programs
    2. Drug prevention programs
    3. Binational collaboration on new marijuana regulations in California
    4. Evidence-based public health measures
  • Improving the Analysis of Crime and Violence
    1. Report precise geospatial coordinates of crimes
    2. Professionalize crime monitoring and analysis
    3. Strengthen criminological studies programs
    4. Dissemination of public information

 

 

Justice in Mexico presents results of new study of Tijuana police

IMG_3569 On March 12, 2015 Justice in Mexico presented the results of its latest Justiciabarómetro survey, titled: Diagnóstico integral de la policía municipal de Tijuana (in Spanish), developed in collaboration with the Institute for Security and Democracy (Instituto para la Seguridad y Democracia, INSYDE), the Law School of the Autonomous University of Baja California (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, UABC) in Mexicali, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the University of Guadalajara (Universidad de Guadalajara, UdeG). The Tijuana survey builds on the findings of two similar studies conducted in Guadalajara in 2009 and Ciudad Juárez in 2011, and was implemented for Justice in Mexico by the polling firm Data Opinión Pública y Mercados (DATA-OPM) form Mexico. Like these previous studies, the Justiciabarómetro-Tijuana constitutes one of the largest independent studies of municipal police ever published in Mexico. Focusing on the border city of Tijuana, adjacent to San Diego, California, this is the largest survey conducted by an independent group of institutions with 1,917 participants with a minimum margin of error (+/- .87%) and a confidence interval of about 99%.

The report examines the views and opinions that predominate among the administrative and operational staff of the municipal police in Tijuana on various aspects related to their work. The survey inquires about the human capital and organization of the municipal police, including community relations and views of recent judicial reform efforts. Among the most relevant findings:

  • The average age of the police department is 38 years, and about 20% are female.
  • 25% have some level of higher education either undergraduate or graduate, 35.8% completed high school, 18.4% have not completed high school, 15.6% reported having completed secondary school and only 5.3% incomplete secondary or lesser degree. 56.6% report an income of less than 15,000 pesos (around $1,000 USD), and most of them (85.5%) believe it would be fair an increase of about 51%.
  • Officers note that they often have to buy their own equipment. Over 70% said they had to buy their own boots, over 60% say that have to buy their own uniforms, and many (43.3%) say that they do not receive equipment in a timely fashion.
  • A 77.7% believe that police in Tijuana has improved in the last ten years, and 42.8% believe that citizens evaluated the police with high scores.
  • Nearly 50% believe it is the citizens who foster corruption while 34.8% think it is citizens and police alike.
  • Respondents indicate that the major security problems in Tijuana are burglary (56.1%), low scale drug dealing (13.7%) and car theft (6.5%). The problems identified as easier for municipal police to resolve are burglary (23.6%), traffic accidents (15.8%) and gangs (14%). The most diffcult to resolve are kidnapping (24.8%), homicide (21.1%), drug trafficking (17.55).
  • 92.2% of the police say they do not have enough knowledge of the New Criminal Justice System, and 57.1% do not consider themselves ready to operate under the new system, which will be implemented nationwide in June 2016.

JusticiabarómetroIMG_0679 consist of a series of studies produced by Justice in Mexico Project at the University of San Diego’s Department of Political Science and International Relations, which provides policy analysis and recommendations concerning the rule of law in Mexico, based on the opinions and experiences of the operators of the criminal justice system.  This survey was supported by the generous underwriting of the Open Society Institute. The Municipal Government of Tijuana and the Secretary of Public Security were supportive at all times facilitating access to the institution and its members, and providing the necessary logistical support. The study was coordinated by María Eugenia Suárez de Garay, David Shirk, and Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, along with other law enforcement and security specialists from Mexico and the United States.

 

TO VIEW THE FULL REPORT ONLINE (42.5MB PDF) PLEASE CLICK HERE.