2019 Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico Report

 

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04/30/19- Justice in Mexico, a research-based program at the University of San Diego, released its 2019 report on Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico, co-authored by Laura Calderón, Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk. This report analyzes the latest available data to broadly assess the current state of violence, organized crime, and human rights in Mexico. The tenth edition in a series is published under a new title to reflect the gradual shift that has occurred to the restructuring illicit drug trade and the rise of new organized crime groups.

In 2018, Mexico saw record violence with 28,816 homicide cases and 33,341 victims reported by the Mexican National Security System (Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública, SNSP). This reflects the continued augmentation in violent crime in Mexico for more than a decade with a notable increase in the last few years. The homicide rate has dramatically escalated from 16.9 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015 as reported to UNODC to 27.3 per 100,000 in 2018 based on SNSP figures. In this and past reports, the authors attribute much of the violence, between a third to a half, to the presence of organized crime groups, particularly drug trafficking organizations.

According to the report, violence has become more pervasive throughout the country but remains highly concentrated in a few specific areas, especially in the major drug trafficking zones located in the northwest and the Pacific Coast. The top ten most violent municipalities in Mexico accounted for 33.6% of all homicides in Mexico in 2018, with 24.7% concentrated in the top five: Tijuana (2,246), Ciudad Juárez (1,004), Acapulco (839), Cancún-Benito Juárez (537), Culiacán (500).

 

 

Tijuana’s rate of 115 homicide cases per 100,000 inhabitants ranks second to Acapulco’s rate of 127 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. According to Baja California State’s Secretary of Public Security (SSP) reporting, Tijuana saw a significant increase in 2018 of 41% victims up from 2017.

The authors have found that Mexican organized crime groups have become more fragmented, decentralized, and diversified in their activities. Notably, violence in the Mexican state of Guanajuato appears to have risen due to the increased presence of the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel and an increase in the prevalence of petroleum theft (huichicol). At least nine municipalities in Guanajuato had a murder rate of more than 100 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

Record violence in Mexico has disproportionally affected certain populations (e.g. politicians, journalist, and men). In 2018, a major election year, there were 37 victims among mayors, mayoral candidates, and former-mayors. These numbers are up slightly from 35 cases in 2017 but demonstrate a significant increase from 14 victims in 2015 and 6 victims in 2016. A 2018 Justice in Mexico study found that in recent years Mexican journalists were at least three times more likely to be murdered than the general population, while mayors were at least nine times more likely. There were 16 journalists and media workers that were killed in 2018. Additionally, the report finds that men are 8.3 times more likely to be homicide victims than women, with 28,522 male homicide victims.

All told, the authors of the report estimate that over 150,000 people were murdered during the six years of the Peña Nieto administration, the most homicides during any presidential term in recent Mexican history. The current Lopez Obrador administration has proposed a new security agenda centered on citizen security, changes in federal law enforcement, and efforts to minimize tensions in U.S.-Mexican relations. Two of the most important measures that the new government has put forward are the creation of a autonomous federal prosecutor and a national guard.

 

 

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2018 Drug Violence in Mexico Report

Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis Through 201704/11/18- Justice in Mexico, a research and public policy program based at the University of San Diego, released its 2018 special report on Drug Violence in Mexico, co-authored by Laura Calderón, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk. The report examines trends in violence and organized crime in Mexico through 2017. The study compiles the latest available data and analysis of trends to help separate the signals from the noise to help better understand the facets, implications, and possible remedies to the ongoing crisis of violence, corruption, and human rights violations associated with the war on drugs.

Mexico experienced dramatic increases in crime and violence over the last decade. The number of intentional homicides documented by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Information (INEGI) declined significantly under both presidents Ernesto Zedillo (1994-2000) and Vicente Fox (2000-2006), but rose dramatically after 2007, the first year in office for President Felipe Calderón (2006-2012). All told, throughout the Calderón administration, INEGI reported 121,669 homicides, an average of over 20,000 people per year, more than 55 people per day, or just over two people every hour. Over that period, no other country in the Western Hemisphere had seen such a large increase either in its homicide rate or in the absolute number of homicides.

Yet, over 116,000 people have been murdered under Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018), despite his campaign pledge that violence would decline dramatically within the first year of his administration. In fact, there were an average of 23,293 homicides per year during the first five years of Peña Nieto’s term, nearly 4,000 more per year than during Calderón’s first five years in office. As such, the annual average number of homicides under the Peña Nieto administration is now about 20% higher than during the Calderón administration, whose first two years saw much lower levels of homicide.

In 2017, state-level increases in intentional homicide cases were found in all but 6 states. The top five states with the largest number of intentional homicide cases in 2017 were Guerrero (2,318), Baja California (2,092), Mexico State (2,041), Veracruz (1,641), and Chihuahua (1,369). In 2017, the state with the largest annual increase in total homicides was Baja California, with most of that increase concentrated in the city of Tijuana, as discussed below. However, the largest percentage increases in homicide cases were found in Nayarit (554% increase) and Baja California Sur (192% increase). At the state level, the largest numerical and percentage decrease in homicides was found in the state of Campeche, which saw 67 homicide cases in 2017, down 17 cases (20% less) compared to the previous year.

 

Journalists and mayors are several times more likely to be killed than ordinary citizens. According to a recent Justice in Mexico study by Laura Calderón using data from 2016, Mexican journalists were at least three times more likely to be killed (.7 per 1,000) than the general population (.21 per 1,000), and mayors are at least twelve times more likely (2.46 murders per 1,000). Justice in Mexico’s Memoria dataset includes 152 mayors, candidates, and former mayors killed from 2005 through 2017, with 14 victims in 2015, six in 2016, and 21 in 2017. In total, nine sitting mayors were killed in 2017.

Mexico’s recent violence is largely attributable to drug trafficking and organized crime. Tallies produced over the past decade by government, media, academic, NGO, and consulting organizations suggest that roughly a third to half of all homicides in Mexico bear signs of organized crime-style violence, including the use of high-caliber automatic weapons, torture, dismemberment, and explicit messages involving organized-crime groups. Based on INEGI’s projected tally of 116,468 homicides from 2013 to 2017, at least 29.7% and perhaps as many as 46.9% of these homicides (34,663 according to newspaper Reforma and as many as 54,631 according to Lantia consulting service) appeared to involve organized crime.

In early 2017, the notorious kingpin leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán was extradited to New York to face charges of organized crime, murder, and drug trafficking, among others. The analysis in the Drug Violence in Mexico report suggests that a significant portion of Mexico’s increases in violence from 2015 through 2017 were related to inter- and intra-organizational conflicts among rival drug traffickers in the wake of Guzmán’s re-arrest in 2016. In particular, Guzmán’s downfall has given rise to a new organized crime syndicate called the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, CJNG). Thus, the surge of violence following Guzmán’s arrest is one of the negative effects of targeted leadership disruption by law enforcement, often known as the “kingpin strategy.”

The country’s recent violence could be a concern in Mexico’s 2018 presidential election. The worsening of security conditions over the past three years has been a major setback for President Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018), who pledged to reduce violence dramatically during his administration. Peña Nieto has received record low approval ratings during his first five years in office, in part due to perceptions of his handling of issues of crime, violence, and corruption, particularly after the disappearance and murder of dozens of students from Ayotzinapa, Guerrero in 2014. Mexico will hold elections in July 2018 and the next president will take office in December 2018. Since there is widespread concern about Mexico’s elevated levels of crime and violence, candidates for public office will feel pressure to take a stand on these issues and may even be targeted for violence for violence.

 

“El Viceroy,” leader of the Juárez Cartel, arrested in Coahuila

Vicente Carrillo Fuentes El Viceroy Juarez Cartel

Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, “El Viceroy.” Photo: Procoeso.

10/11/14 — Mexican officials detained another leader of a major Mexican drug trafficking organization with the arrest of Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, “El Viceroy,” the leader of the Juárez Cartel, on October 9. Members of the Federal Police (Policía Federal, PF) arrested El Viceroy and two of his bodyguards during an operation in Torreón, Coahuila, conducted by the National Security Commision (Comisión Nacional de Seguridad, CNS). No shots were fired during the arrest, and authorities also seized two vehicles, one large and one small firearm, and communication equipment, which were passed to the Public Prosecutor’s Office (Ministerio Público Federal, MPF).

El Viceroy, who used a fake identification when police initially detained him, was a wanted man in both Mexico and the United States, with a reward for information leading to his arrest set at $30 million pesos ($2.23 million USD) and $5 million (USD), respectively. He was wanted for charges of homicide, money laundering, and drug trafficking. According to Univisión, El Viceroy had some control and power in almost one-third of Mexico’s 32 states and Federal District (Distrito Federal, DF), as well as maintained control of important drug trafficking routes connecting the United States and Mexico, routes used specifically to transport cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and marijuana.

As one of the heads of the Juárez Cartel, Vicente Carrillo Fuentes led one of the most important cartels in Mexico. He played an important role with three of his brothers—Amado, Rodolfo, Alberto—in expanding the Juárez Cartel in the 1990s, trafficking drugs from South America to the United States, explains Excélsior. He then assumed his leadership role following the 1997 death of Amado Carrillo Fuentes, “El Señor de los Cielos,” El Viceroy’s brother and founder of the Juárez Cartel. Although he stepped down from his role at one point due to health reasons, El Viceroy nevertheless maintained a leading position in the Juárez Cartel, so much so that he recently represented the cartel at a meeting with leaders from three other prominent Mexican cartels—Los Zetas, Beltrán Leyva Organization, and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación, CJNG). That meeting, held in June 2014, was viewed as the start of a possible alliance that may be growing among several of Mexico’s top organized crime groups (OCG), as they form a potential “cartel of cartels,” according to Reforma.

Although too early to tell, several media sources claim that the fall of El Viceroy marks the end of an era for the Juárez Cartel. Regardless, his arrest has been applauded by both U.S. and Mexican politicians, including the president of Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies, Silvano Aureoles Conejo, who recognized that El Viceroy’s fall “gives the population confidence” that the Mexican government is making strides in its effort to destabilize organized crime groups and disrupt illicit activity.

Sources:

“Leader of the New Juarez Cartel captured.” Justice in Mexico. September 3, 2013.

Barajas, Abel. “Detecta Gobierno cartel de cárteles.” Reforma. August 29, 2014.

“Reports indicate that four OCGs are forming a ‘cartel of cartels’ alliance.” Justice in Mexico. September 7, 2014.

“Detienen al capo Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, alias El Viceroy.” Univisión. October 9, 2014.

“’El Viceroy’ mostró identificación falsa al ser detenido.” El Informador. October 9, 2014.

Redacción. “Detención de El Viceroy termina por demantelar al cártel de Juárez.” Excélsior. October 9, 2014.

Jiménez, Horacio. “Aureoles aplaude detención de El Viceroy.” El Universal. October 10, 2014.